EFFECTS OF AFGHANISTAN ON INDIA’S WAR ON TERROR IN KASHMIR
Brief on Afghanistan
Afghanistan has always been at the cross –roads around which the Great Game has been played historically for dominance by Major Powers. Two hundred years back, Maharaja Ranjit Singh had subdued the Afghans to ensure peace on its western borders. In the modern history we have witnessed the fall of USSR and its consequences followed by the US invasion after 9/11 which lasted for 20 years. The hasty withdrawal of the US forces and sudden collapse of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the rise of the Taliban has added a new dimension to India’s military threats.
Terrain
As observed on the physical map of the country, most of Afghanistan is a rugged, inhospitable mountainous landscape. More than 50% of the total land area lies above 6,500 ft. The mountains of the Hindu Kush range diminish in height as they stretch westwards. Near Kabul, in the west, they attain heights of 11,500 to 13,100 ft.; in the east they extend from 14,800 to 19,700 ft. Land elevations generally slope from northeast to southwest, following the general shape of the Hindu Kush massif, from its highest point in the Pamir Mountains. Kabul is strategically situated in a valley surrounded by high mountains at crossroads of north-south and east-west trade routes. Kabul is surrounded by Koh-e Pagan Mountain from the east, Koh-e Qrough Mountain from the south-west and Koh-e Shirdarwaza Mountain from the north-east.
Situation In Afghanistan And Its Effects
After the hasty and careless withdrawal by the US and NATO forces the young and ill equipped Afghan army was left to fend for itself against the Talibani Blitzkrieg. The current situation in Afghanistan is a very delicate one which needs to be handled proactively with a resolve not just by the international organisations but also by India in order to gain favourable results. The subsequent takeover by Taliban has resulted us to rethink our national policy. A potential ally might turn into a new foe at the doorstep, let alone the enormous investments India had already made to build infrastructure in the war torn nation. A dam was entirely funded and built by India on the river Hari, called as Salma dam or India Afghan Friendship Dam in the Herat Province, for irrigation and power generation.
The entire project has costed a total of 237 mil USD to the Indian exchequer. Today the dam is under the control of Taliban.
Taliban seized control of the dam as the water access can be used as a tool of leverage against the Afghan nationals. For Taliban, threatening national assets serves as a way to terrorise its people. As per recent inputs from UN despite holding over 1.3 trillion USD worth of untapped natural resources, the country remains one of the least developed nations in the world. With an unemployment rate of 23% and about half of its population living below poverty line and to fuel this all the members of terrorist outfit active in Afghan becoming jobless after the US withdrawal, this unemployed lot of individuals has turned out to be a new untapped resource for terrorist organisations in Pakistan. There is no secret that Taliban is a sympathizer of Pakistan based terror outfits such as LeT whose sole agenda is Kashmir. With the support provided by Pakistani Government to Taliban during its war in Afghanistan, it is safe to conclude that Pakistan will now expect similar support from Taliban for its nefarious plans of terror in the Valley.
Recently, it is being observed that the remnants of the US war in Afghanistan are being preserved by a thriving illegal market for weapons and combat equipment left behind by American, NATO and former Afghan troops. Landikotal, Pakistan’s farthest major town along the Durand Line in the tribal Khyber district, is a go to location for illegal firearms trade. Firearms and equipment bearing military markings of the western countries are openly displayed for sale here.
The inventory is a collectors paradise and a nation’s worst nightmare. Guns, long-range sniper rifles, pistols, night vision goggles, binoculars, daggers, grenades discarded by SF personnels line the shelves of gun shops. The Taliban had recently warned people in Afghanistan that if anyone was found in possession of a US-made fire-arm, it would be immediately confiscated and the offender will be severely punished. The warning has further increased smuggling of weapons into Pakistan as every Afghan who possesses a weapon now wants to sell it. Moreover, even before the Taliban takeover, ANA personnels had sold weapons to these markets in order to prevent members of Taliban in taking over their weapons. Easy availability means prices of these firearms and accessories have dropped significantly. For example, the asking rate for M4 rifles slid from $9,000 to $2,500. These weapons are smuggled from Afghanistan into Pakistan in trucks laden with fruits and vegetables.
It is important to mention that after the abrogation of Article 370 from Indian Constitution it has become difficult for terrorist outfits operating inside our country to sustain as various modes of funds transfer and separatist organisation/ leadership has been targetted. But, it is now turning out to be a tricky situation as neither funds nor manpower/weapons required by terrorist outfits would need to be raised as all the ingredients are readily available at their doorstep as a result of the aftermath of American withdrawal.
Even though India has a layered and tiered defence system all along the LOC which makes it difficult to infiltrate, it will see a rise in the infiltration attempts. Involvement of Taliban in radicalising the Kashmir youth is a clear possibility which we cannot deny. The infiltration and terrorist strikes may see an upward trend in the Kashmir valley. After the hard-line stance taken up by the Central Government, some of the inimical elements in the erstwhile Kashmiri political leadership will be looking forward to support this new wave for foreign terrorists. These operations when combined with cease fire violations of the Pakistan Army will force Indian Army to be in a state of high alert.
Solution
Some of the members of Taliban, when they were part of the ANA had been trained in the Indian Military Academy. That should be of some help for India to establish a working relationship so that India’s interests are taken care off. As regards to the Kashmir issue, India would have to take many initiatives such as massive recruitment of eligible Kashmiri unemployed youths in jobs all across the country at priority. This is an age in which force and restrain is hardly an alternative to achieve the aim of counter terrorism. In this age of technology, people tend to question all the ideologies presented to them good or bad. Concrete steps towards education, infrastructure development, employment and at the same time routing out redtapism and corruption must be taken on war footing. A dedicated Government entity to co-ordinate and monitor all Perception Management and image building programmes must be established, which can synergize the efforts of various agencies working towards the same goal and project the same at the international platform through print, electronic and social media as an official handle of the Government of India.
– Capt Aditya Tathe
